Michael Lopp’s been writing as Rands in Repose for decades, and in Tuesday’s letter he ran the numbers on his own archive: out of ten pieces, half land with nothing despite real effort, and the ones that actually take off are rarely the ones he expected to.

His biggest hit, “Shields Down,” came out of an argument in a Pinterest conference room — he blurted a metaphor, wrote it in the back of a car, and hit publish before he even arrived, no outline, no plan. People wanted to republish it; there are shirts now. None of that came from a content calendar — it came from years of writing in public until he was ready when the moment showed up.